Overcoming Cognitive Biases and Becoming a Super Forecaster
If you want to learn about cognitive biases all humans share, you might start with Daniel Kahneman’s ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’, or the paper he wrote in 1974 with friend and colleague Amos Tversky, ‘Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases’.
But actively applying your newfound knowledge may prove difficult. After all, just because you know what biases you have doesn’t mean you can notice them at all times (nor do you need to).
Our System 1 takes care of most decisions while System 2 is only brought to bear occasionally. But, if we can get beyond what Kahneman called ’What You See Is All There Is (WYSIATI), or what Tetlock calls ‘tip of the nose thinking’, then we can begin to employ strategies in overcoming cognitive biases when and where they matter.
Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner have given us an interesting way to practice doing so in their book, Super Forecasting. In their story about a relatively small group of super forecasters who beat IARPA’s own government-backed researchers in a tournament of geopolitical forecasting, Tetlock and Gardner provide a blueprint for beginning one’s own journey of forecasting better than the average human (or at least better than you yourself do now).
Their results were impressive and their knowledge sharing is generous.
See full essay here: https://medium.com/@decision_/all-of-life-is-a-wager-768f04b94c1f